Global Trade Without America: A New Era of Cooperation Emerges

Written by Julie Marie Winger Eriksen

Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has played a leading role in shaping and promoting a free, open, and liberal global trade market. Through the Marshall Plan (The European Recovery Program), the U.S. sought to revive European economies, not only to support recovery, but also to foster future trade partnerships.  

When Donald Trump entered the Oval Office for the second time as President of the United States, he brought with him a markedly different perspective on the world, free markets, and globalization. President Trump views the global economy as a zero-sum game where one country’s deficit (“loss”) is another’s surplus (“win”). This stands in stark contrast to the vision held by previous American presidents, who largely embraced international trade as a path to mutual growth and prosperity. 

President Trump has claimed that tariffs are “beautiful” and is convinced that they will restore America’s golden age and will help close the trade deficit. The problem, however, is that the last time the world experienced a trade war and high tariffs was during the 1930s, leading up to the Great Depression and the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939. 

How are global players reacting? 

In an article published by The Economist, it is suggested that countries should be careful with fighting fire with fire, as we saw in the 1930s. Further the article states that “Instead, governments should focus on increasing trade flows among themselves, especially in the services that power the 21st-century economy. With a share of final demand for imports of only 15%, America does not dominate global trade the way it does global finance or military spending.” 

Although the U.S. is shifting away from its traditional role as a key facilitator of liberal, open trade, the article highlights, through statistics and facts, the ongoing resilience of global trade. The think tank Global Trade Alert, states that if the US were to stop imports entirely, its trading partners could recover all their lost exports within just five years, based on current trends. The article also mentions that 34% of global import demand is driven by the EU, the 12 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), South Korea, and smaller open economies such as Norway.  

The Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce John W.H. Denton AO has also stated: “(…) The U.S. is an economic superpower but only accounts for 13 percent of global imports. How other nations respond to the new duties will ultimately determine the scale and depth of any economic fallout from “Liberation Day”.”

In March of this year, three countries that have historical wounds, territorial disputes, and political tensions came together to deliver a unified response to President Trump’s tariffs. The foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea, and China met for the first time since 2023. Together, they emphasized the importance of finding common ground on East Asian security and economic issues in the face of growing global uncertainty.  

Free trade and a liberal open market are key pillars of global commerce. The data and arguments presented in this article suggest that the world is capable of sustaining free trade even without the involvement of the U.S. The recent meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea illustrates how countries are moving closer together, rather than becoming more isolated, despite the trade war initiated by former President Trump. Ironically, the U.S.—once the primary champion of open markets since the Second World War—now risks sidelining itself from the very system it helped create.